What the 1930s Teach Us About 2025

The United States Has Done This Before

In 1930, the United States passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, raising tariffs by 20% on top of already high levels. The intent was to protect American industries during a downturn. The result was global retaliation:

Canada imposed immediate tariffs on US goods and shifted trade to UK commonwealth countries.
Switzerland boycotted U.S. goods.
Italy slapped 135%+ tariffs on U.S. cars, while Spain enacted 100%+ tariffs on cars from the U.S., France, and Italy.
The United Kingdom -- and more than 70 other countries -- devalued their currencies to stay competitive.
France countered the UK's currency devaluation with quotas and other trade barriers.
Dozens created exclusive trade blocs and set import quotas that lasted well into the 1940s.

Even after the U.S. reversed course in 1934 and began reducing tariffs, trade didn’t return to normal. Supply chains had already shifted. Relationships had changed. Protectionism had redrawn the map.

The Lesson?

Trade doesn’t rewind. It reconfigures.

When tariffs go up, businesses adapt. New suppliers are sourced. New partnerships are signed. New trade routes and compliance regimes are built. By the time policymakers consider rolling back tariffs, it’s often too late — the world has moved on.

Today’s Trade Landscape Feels Familiar

Just like the 1930s, we are once again seeing:

A rise in tariffs, sanctions, and export controls
Retaliation — not just direct, but indirect and systemic
Currency policies and trade alliances reshaped by politics, not just economics
A breakdown of multilateral trade frameworks like the WTO
Growing fragmentation and complexity

Many ask: “Won’t this all go back to normal once the U.S. has a new president?”

We believe the answer is: No.

Regardless of who is in office, trade policy is now a lever of national security, industrial strategy, and political identity. This isn’t just a phase — it’s a structural shift.

Zolltor AI: Built for a New Trade Era

Zolltor AI helps European manufacturers, logistics providers, and customs brokers stay ahead of the curve — not behind it.

Our tools are designed for this exact moment:

Constantly shifting tariffs and trade rules
Fragmented and overlapping compliance regimes
A need for fast, self-serve answers — not slow consultant reports

We provide:

Real-time tariff change alerts
Plain-language regulatory summaries
Scenario planning tools to compare sourcing or export options
A centralized, always-updated intelligence engine

History Doesn’t Repeat — But It Rhymes

Smoot-Hawley showed us that trade disruptions trigger long-lasting consequences. Today's turbulence is no different.

If your business relies on global supply chains, now is the time to act — not wait.

Zolltor AI is here to help you see what’s changing, and what it means for your business.